Despite String Of Government Shutdowns, Tax Refunds Are Projected To Be Strong
“Render Unto Caesar The Things That Are Caesar’s…”
– Mark 12:17
Today, April 15, is the deadline for filing taxes in the United States.
Back on Feb. 3, the House of Representatives brought the government out of yet another shutdown, voting 217-214, passing a $1.2 trillion federal funding package.
While it was only a partial government shutdown, lasting just four days, it was the second shutdown of Trump’s second term as president. Still, as of Feb. 13, funding for DHS remains up in the air, as it was the only department excluded from the funding package.
During the bill signing to reopen the government on Feb. 3, it was mentioned that the Trump tax policies, including tax refunds that are projected to bring many Americans an additional $1,000 over last year’s refunds, are setting Americans up to be more “prosperous.”
Here are a few insights into the 2026 tax season…
How To Get An Extension To File Your Taxes
If you’re struggling to file your taxes, or just need a little more time, you can file for an extension.
While your owed tax dollars are due on April 15, there are three ways with the IRS to get an extension for filing your taxes. Extensions can easily be approved, allowing for taxpayers to have until October 15 to file their tax return.
The three ways to get an extension are, as follows:
Pay Online and Check The Box: Using an online payment option, pay what you owe and check the box that you are paying as part of filing for an extension (you don’t have to file a separate extension form and you’ll receive a confirmation number of your extension for your records);
Use Free File: Using IRS Free File to request an automatic tax-filing extension online; or
Request An Extension By Mail: File Form 4868, Application for Automatic Extension of Time To File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return. This can be filed by mail, with an IRS e-filing partner online, or through a tax professional.
For more information, visit the IRS website.
Did The Partial Government Shutdown Affect Tax Returns?
The Internal Revenue Service has approximately 75,000 employees, and the partial government shutdown did not last long enough to affect their pay.
Employees of the IRS were exempt from being furloughed through Feb. 7 before funding would’ve run out and been drawn from funding set aside in 2022 legislation. In short, the IRS has remained fully active and staffed since the conclusion of the 2025 shutdown.
Still, according to the IRS, the department “started 2025 with about 102,000 employees and finished with about 74,000, a reduction of 27%.”
This drop in staff is expected to put more pressure on the IRS, which reports it is already facing challenges resulting from retroactive changes to some tax laws.
What Can I Expect My Refund To Be Like?
During Trump’s primetime address to the nation on Dec. 17, 2025, the tax cuts outlined in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, he said many families will be saving between $11,000 and $20,000. Further, he said that this coming spring is projected to be “the largest tax refund season” on record.
According to the National Taxpayer Advocate’s 2025 report to Congress, “Approximately 104 million taxpayers (63%) received refunds, with an average refund amount of $3,167.”
Could the 2026 average be closer to $4,000? If an additional $1,000 in refunds is anticipated for many Americans, then the answer could be “yes.”
If you’ve had federal taxes withdrawn from your paycheck in 2025, you are likely to expect a refund this year.
Further, through the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, which was passed on July 4, 2025, the child tax credit has been expanded.
Going from $2,000 per dependent child, the bill has added an additional $500, bringing the total child credit to $2,500.