Despite String Of Government Shutdowns, Tax Refunds Are Projected To Be Strong
“Render Unto Caesar The Things That Are Caesar’s…”
– Mark 12:17
Voting 217-214, the House of Representatives passed the $1.2 trillion federal funding package on Tuesday, Feb. 3, sending the bill to the Resolute Desk for President Donald Trump’s signature.
Ending a four-day partial government shutdown — the second shutdown of Trump’s second term as president — this funding package is expected to keep the government afloat through Sept. 30. Excluded from this plan was funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which has attracted the ire of many Democrats and some Republicans regarding its approach to immigration enforcement.
Lawmakers now have until Feb. 13 to strike a deal on funding DHS.
During the bill signing to reopen the government on Feb. 3, it was mentioned that the Trump tax policies, including tax refunds that are projected to bring many Americans an additional $1,000 over last year’s refunds, are setting Americans up to be more “prosperous.”
Watch Trump reopen the government, here:
However, with the shutdowns behind us, many Americans are beginning to receive their W-2s, kicking off tax season.
Here are a few insights into the 2026 tax season…
Did The Partial Government Shutdown Affect Tax Returns?
The Internal Revenue Service has approximately 75,000 employees, and the partial government shutdown did not last long enough to affect their pay.
Employees of the IRS were exempt from being furloughed through Feb. 7 before funding would’ve run out and been drawn from funding set aside in 2022 legislation. In short, the IRS has remained fully active and staffed since the conclusion of the 2025 shutdown.
Still, according to the IRS, the department “started 2025 with about 102,000 employees and finished with about 74,000, a reduction of 27%.”
This drop in staff is expected to put more pressure on the IRS, which reports it is already facing challenges resulting from retroactive changes to some tax laws.
What Can I Expect My Refund To Be Like?
During Trump’s primetime address to the nation on Dec. 17, 2025, the tax cuts outlined in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, he said many families will be saving between $11,000 and $20,000. Further, he said that this coming spring is projected to be “the largest tax refund season” on record.
According to the National Taxpayer Advocate’s 2025 report to Congress, “Approximately 104 million taxpayers (63%) received refunds, with an average refund amount of $3,167.”
Could the 2026 average be closer to $4,000? If an additional $1,000 in refunds is anticipated for many Americans, then the answer could be “yes.”
If you’ve had federal taxes withdrawn from your paycheck in 2025, you are likely to expect a refund this year.
Further, through the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, which was passed on July 4, 2025, the child tax credit has been expanded.
Going from $2,000 per dependent child, the bill has added an additional $500, bringing the total child credit to $2,500.